Each night the ALAN Indicator publishes a BULL / BEAR / NEUTRAL read on every scanned chart. This page tracks what price actually did afterward — every published read, resolved at one-week, one-month, and three-month horizons, wins and losses alike. The twenty-year backtest shows how the engine behaved in replay; this is how it is doing live.
Reads published under the calibration currently running. Different calibrations score charts differently, so results are never pooled across eras — each era stands on its own numbers.
| Read | 1W (5 sessions) | 1M (21 sessions) | 3M (63 sessions) |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | — | — | — |
| BEAR | 42.5% hit n=327 · med +0.4% 42 pending | 50.0% hit n=40 · med -0.1% 329 pending | no resolved outcomes yet 369 pending |
| NEUTRAL | 57.8% up-share n=11452 · med +0.7% 3229 pending 3 expired | 59.9% up-share n=1906 · med +2.1% 12775 pending 3 expired | no resolved outcomes yet 14681 pending 3 expired |
| Conviction | Read |
|---|
| Read | 1W (5 sessions) | 1M (21 sessions) | 3M (63 sessions) |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | — | — | — |
| BEAR | 58.3% hit n=12 · med -0.7% | 50.0% hit n=12 · med -0.9% | no resolved outcomes yet 12 pending |
| NEUTRAL | 32.7% up-share n=590 · med -2.1% 1 pending | 61.6% up-share n=588 · med +2.2% 3 pending | no resolved outcomes yet 591 pending |
| Conviction | Read | 1W (5 sessions) | 1M (21 sessions) | 3M (63 sessions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction < 40 | BEAR | 58.3% hit n=12 · med -0.7% | 50.0% |
| Read | 1W (5 sessions) | 1M (21 sessions) | 3M (63 sessions) |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | 48.8% hit n=607 · med -0.0% | 67.0% hit n=606 · med +3.5% 1 expired | no resolved outcomes yet 606 pending 1 expired |
| BEAR | — | — | — |
| NEUTRAL | 45.1% up-share n=652 · med -0.3% 4 pending | 62.8% up-share n=647 · med +2.3% 5 pending 4 expired | no resolved outcomes yet 652 pending 4 expired |
| Conviction | Read | 1W (5 sessions) | 1M (21 sessions) | 3M (63 sessions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction < 40 | BULL | 52.7% |
Directional reads bucketed by the month they were published. Small samples are the honest reality of a young live record — the sample size sits next to every rate, and no month is omitted.
| Signal month | Calibration | Read | Horizon | Hit rate | n | Pending | Median move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | v2026-07c | BEAR | 1M | — | 0 | 178 | — |
| 2026-08 | v2026-07c | BEAR | 1W | 51.1% | 137 | 41 | -0.1% |
| 2026-08 | v2026-07c | BEAR | 3M | — | 0 | 178 | — |
| 2026-07 | v2026-07b | BEAR | 1M | 50.0% | 12 | 0 | -0.9% |
| 2026-07 | v2026-07b | BEAR | 1W | 58.3% | 12 | 0 | -0.7% |
| 2026-07 | v2026-07b | BEAR | 3M |
A read is measured close-to-close from the closing price it was computed on: BULL hits if the close 5, 21, or 63 trading sessions later is higher; BEAR hits if it is lower. A flat close counts as a miss for both — ties never flatter the record. NEUTRAL makes no directional claim, so it reports the share of forward moves that were up, not a hit rate.
Each read is computed from bars ending at its as-of date and published that night; the outcome window starts at that same close. A horizon that has not elapsed is shown as pending — it is never estimated, annualized, or filled in early.
Outcomes are snapshotted for every published read, including tickers later delisted — those resolve from their frozen price history. When a listing ended before a horizon elapsed, the row is disclosed as expired rather than quietly dropped. Nothing is removed for looking bad.
When the indicator is recalibrated, its scoring changes; mixing reads from different calibrations would blur what each one actually did. Results are grouped by the calibration that produced them, with the current era shown first.
Live outcomes begin 2026-04-07— a young record with small samples, published anyway. Universe: the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 names the nightly scan covers. Horizons are counted in each ticker’s own trading sessions. This page shows historical outcomes of published signals, not investment advice.
A free ALAN account puts the calibrated BULL / BEAR / NEUTRAL read, the signal scanner, and support/resistance levels on every ticker you research.
| 1W (5 sessions) |
|---|
| 1M (21 sessions) |
|---|
| 3M (63 sessions) |
|---|
| Conviction < 40 | BEAR | 42.5% hit n=327 · med +0.4% 42 pending | 50.0% hit n=40 · med -0.1% 329 pending | no resolved outcomes yet 369 pending |
| no resolved outcomes yet 12 pending |
| 65.3% hit n=349 · med +3.8% |
| no resolved outcomes yet 349 pending |
| Conviction 40-59 | BULL | 42.2% hit n=187 · med -0.6% | 69.9% hit n=186 · med +3.3% 1 expired | no resolved outcomes yet 186 pending 1 expired |
| Conviction 60+ | BULL | 46.5% hit n=71 · med -0.1% | 67.6% hit n=71 · med +3.6% | no resolved outcomes yet 71 pending |
| — |
| 0 |
| 12 |
| — |
| 2026-07 | v2026-07c | BEAR | 1M | 50.0% | 40 | 150 | -0.1% |
| 2026-07 | v2026-07c | BEAR | 1W | 36.3% | 190 | 0 | +0.9% |
| 2026-07 | v2026-07c | BEAR | 3M | — | 0 | 190 | — |
| 2026-07 | v2026-07 | BULL | 1M | 67.0% | 606 | 0 | +3.5% |
| 2026-07 | v2026-07 | BULL | 1W | 48.8% | 607 | 0 | -0.0% |
| 2026-07 | v2026-07 | BULL | 3M | — | 0 | 606 | — |
| 2026-06 | v2026-07c | BEAR | 1M | — | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2026-06 | v2026-07c | BEAR | 1W | — | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2026-06 | v2026-07c | BEAR | 3M | — | 0 | 1 | — |
END · SHOWING ALL 15 MONTH-BUCKETS