Global Diversification Protects Against Lost Decades
US vs. international vs. global portfolio across different decades
The US has dominated since 2010, but international stocks outperformed significantly in the 2000s. Japan's 'lost decades' since 1989 demonstrate that concentration in a single market carries real risk — even for the world's second-largest economy.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-11-10
US large caps (SPY)Developed international (EFA)Emerging markets (EEM)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: SPY, EFA, EEM · Computed 2026-11-11
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
International stocks outperformed US in 2000-2009 by 30%+
The S&P 500 returned approximately 0% (real) in the 2000s while EAFE returned +30% real. The US dominance of 2010-2024 could reverse — it has before.
Japan's 35-year secular bear market is a real-world worst case
The Nikkei 225 peaked in December 1989 and didn't recover until 2024 — 35 years later. This can happen to any single-country allocation, including the US.
A 30% international allocation provides meaningful diversification
A 70/30 US/international split has historically matched pure US returns with 10-15% lower volatility and significantly shorter max drawdown recovery times.
For your portfolio
Hold a meaningful international allocation before the case for it becomes obvious — Japan's experience shows a single market, however dominant, can stagnate for decades, and diversification pays precisely when faith in the home market peaks.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
—NYSE — · ETFEED MKT · — msBUILD e689b75
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