How missing just 10 of the best trading days destroys returns
Over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 has returned approximately 10.5% annualized. Missing the 10 best days reduces that to approximately 6%. Missing the 20 best days reduces it to approximately 3.5%. The best days cluster during volatility — sitting out 'until things calm down' guarantees missing them.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-11-10
Fully investedMissed the 10 best daysMissed the 20 best daysMissed the 30 best days
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily returns · Computed 2026-11-11
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The best days are impossible to predict in advance
7 of the 10 best days occurred within 2 weeks of the 10 worst days. You cannot capture the best days without also being present for the worst days. They are a package deal.
This is the quantitative case against market timing
Even a hypothetical investor who correctly avoided every crash but missed the recoveries would underperform buy-and-hold. The math is asymmetric — upside matters more.
Show this chart when clients want to 'wait for things to calm down'
The phrase 'wait for clarity' is code for 'wait until the best days have already happened.' Clarity arrives at higher prices. Always.
For your portfolio
Since the best days arrive in the middle of the worst stretches, make staying invested through volatility a written rule with named exceptions — genuine spending needs, allocation bands — because the version of you that sets the rule in calm markets is the only one that will be rational in the storm.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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