SVB collapsed on March 10, 2023 after a bank run driven by unrealized losses on long-duration Treasuries. The Fed created the BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program) within 48 hours. Equities had largely shrugged off the episode within 3 weeks.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceComputed 2026-11-11
Bars: the S&P 500 forward return after the single occurrence. One event, so there is no percentile range.
Based on a single historical event, so there is no spread to show: this is one outcome, not a distribution. Last triggered: 2023-03-10.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
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ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Computed 2026-11-11
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2023-03-10
+6.4%
+34.0%
—
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The Fed's response was near-instantaneous
The BTFP was created over a weekend — a speed of response that would have been impossible pre-2008. The lesson: the Fed's crisis toolkit is now fast enough to prevent most contagion.
This was an interest-rate risk failure, not a credit crisis
SVB's assets were high-quality (Treasuries, MBS). The problem was duration mismatch, not bad loans. This distinction matters — credit crises (2008) are systemic; duration mismatches are idiosyncratic.
Regional bank stocks took longer to recover
While the S&P 500 recovered quickly, the KRE (regional bank ETF) remained depressed for months. The lesson: systemic risk was contained but the affected sector paid a lasting price.
For your portfolio
Bank-stress headlines are a prompt to check sector concentration and cash placement (FDIC limits, treasury sweep), not index exposure. In March 2023 the actionable risk lived in regional-bank overweights and uninsured corporate cash — both fixable before the event, neither fixable during it.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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