Bitcoin Halvings — Equity Returns Around a Fixed Crypto Calendar
S&P 500 performance around each Bitcoin halving date
Roughly every four years, the Bitcoin protocol cuts the reward paid to miners in half — an event known as a halving. These dates are set by code, not by any institution, which makes them one of the few perfectly predictable events in markets. Halvings have historically marked the start of major crypto bull cycles, and this chart overlays how the S&P 500 traded around each one, separating genuine spillover from coincidence.
| Date | 1M return | 1Y return | 5Y return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-11-28 | -0.5% | +28.2% | +86.3% |
| 2016-07-11 | +2.1% | +13.5% | +104.4% |
| 2020-05-11 | +8.9% | +41.7% | +101.9% |
| 2024-04-19 | +6.9% | +8.2% | — |
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
Unlike earnings surprises or Fed decisions, halving dates are known years in advance. Anything truly predictable about them should, in theory, already be reflected in prices before the event arrives.
The halving changes Bitcoin's supply mechanics; it changes nothing about corporate earnings or interest rates. Any pattern in stock returns around these dates deserves skepticism, and this overlay lets you inspect it directly.
With only a handful of halvings in history, apparent patterns can easily be noise. Overlaying each episode side by side makes the dispersion between them visible rather than hiding it in an average.
Avoid repositioning the equity sleeve around crypto calendar events; the sample is too small to support timing decisions. If halving cycles influence a crypto allocation, consider writing the intended holding period and exit criteria down in advance, so the position is governed by a rule rather than by cycle narratives.