Public data · Market history
What markets did next.
174 charts of market history, free to read: forward returns after VIX spikes, yield-curve inversions, Fed pivots, crashes, and dozens of other historical triggers — every occurrence listed, every source named.
What is the ALAN market-history chart library?
A library of 174charts answering one question each: after a specific historical trigger — a VIX close above 30, a 2s10s yield-curve inversion, a 5% single-day drop — what did the S&P 500 do next? Each chart lists every historical occurrence with 1-month, 1-year, and 5-year forward returns, and names its data source (CBOE, FRED, S&P Dow Jones Indices).
Volatility & Fear · 10
VIX Crosses 30 — Elevated Fear
S&P 500 returns after VIX closes above 30
Source: CBOE VIX Index
VIX Crosses 40 — Outright Panic
S&P 500 returns after VIX closes above 40
Source: CBOE VIX Index
VIX Crosses 50 — Crisis Capitulation
S&P 500 returns after VIX closes above 50
Source: CBOE VIX Index
S&P 500 Down 3% in a Single Day
Forward returns after a -3% session
Source: S&P 500 daily returns
S&P 500 Down 5% in a Single Day
Forward returns after a -5% session
Source: S&P 500 daily returns
S&P 500 Up 5% in a Single Day
Are big up days a buy or a bear-trap?
Source: S&P 500 daily returns
Realized Volatility Above 25%
When 30-day actual vol crosses 25% annualized
Source: S&P 500 daily returns
VIX Doubles in 5 Days
When fear spikes 100% in a week
Source: CBOE VIX Index
The VIX Almost Always Overstates Actual Volatility
VIX (implied) vs. 30-day realized volatility on the S&P 500
Source: CBOE VIX vs S&P 500 realized vol
The Yen Carry-Trade Unwind — August 5, 2024
When a funding trade broke: Nikkei -12%, VIX above 60, S&P -3%
Source: S&P 500 and VIX; date verified: BIS Bulletin 90
Bear Markets · 7
S&P 500 Pullback (-5% From High)
The routine pullback threshold
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
S&P 500 Correction (-10% From High)
The textbook correction
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
S&P 500 Bear Market (-20%)
Entering a textbook bear market
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
S&P 500 Deep Bear (-30%)
Forward returns from extreme drawdowns
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Nasdaq Correction (-10%)
Technology sector corrections
Source: Nasdaq Composite
Nasdaq Bear Market (-20%)
Tech enters bear territory
Source: Nasdaq Composite
S&P 500 Death Cross (50-Day Below 200-Day MA)
The most overhyped technical signal in finance
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Rates & Yield Curve · 8
Yield Curve Inverts (10Y - 2Y)
The most-watched recession indicator
Source: FRED DGS10 minus DGS2
Yield Curve Inverts (10Y - 3M)
The Fed's preferred recession signal
Source: FRED T10Y3M
Yield Curve Un-Inverts (Steepening)
When the curve normalizes — the late-cycle alarm
Source: FRED DGS10 minus DGS2
10-Year Treasury Yield Above 4%
Higher-for-longer rate regime
Source: FRED DGS10
10-Year Treasury Yield Above 5%
The restrictive rate threshold
Source: FRED DGS10
Real Yields Above 2%
10Y TIPS yield crosses 2% — genuinely restrictive
Source: FRED DFII10
High-Yield Spreads Widen Past 500bp
Credit stress emerges
Source: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2
US Dollar Index (DXY) Surges Above 105
Strong dollar regime and global implications
Source: DXY
Fed Policy · 8
Fed Begins a Hiking Cycle
First rate hike after an easing period
Source: FRED FEDFUNDS
Fed Delivers First Rate Cut
Easing begins — what comes next
Source: FRED FEDFUNDS
Fed Hikes 50bp in a Single Meeting
Aggressive tightening signal
Source: FRED FEDFUNDS
Fed Hikes 75bp — Emergency Tightening
The most aggressive single-meeting move
Source: FRED FEDFUNDS
Fed Cuts 50bp — Emergency Easing
When the Fed cuts big, something is wrong
Source: FRED FEDFUNDS
Fed Announces Quantitative Easing
Balance sheet expansion begins
Source: FRED WALCL
Fed Announces Quantitative Tightening
Balance sheet reduction begins
Source: FRED WALCL
A New Fed Chair Is Announced — Every Instance Since 1951
S&P 500 forward paths from all nine chair-nomination announcements, overlaid
Source: S&P 500; nomination dates verified against the American Presidency Project and White House archives
Recession Signals · 12
Sahm Rule Triggered
Unemployment rate rises 0.5pp from its 12-month low
Source: FRED SAHMREALTIME
Initial Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg Spikes 25%+
Labor market deterioration in real-time
Source: FRED ICSA
Initial Claims Cross 300K (4-Week Average)
The traditional recession threshold
Source: FRED IC4WSA
3-Month / 10-Year Curve Inverts
The Fed's own preferred recession model input
Source: FRED T10Y3M
S&P 500 Earnings Decline Year-Over-Year
Corporate profits contract
Source: S&P 500 EPS
S&P 500 Forward Estimates Cut 10%+
When analysts collectively slash expectations
Source: S&P 500 forward EPS
Nonfarm Payrolls Miss by 100K+
A large miss to consensus expectations
Source: BLS Employment Situation via FRED PAYEMS
Consumer Sentiment Collapses — Pessimism as a Contrarian Signal
S&P 500 returns after University of Michigan sentiment falls below 70
Source: FRED UMCSENT (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment); S&P 500
When Recessions Officially Begin — Markets Move First
S&P 500 performance from each NBER-dated recession start
Source: NBER business-cycle dates; S&P 500
When Recessions Officially End — The Rally Comes Early
S&P 500 performance from each NBER-dated recession end
Source: NBER business-cycle dates; S&P 500
The Economy Stops Adding Jobs — Negative Payroll Prints
S&P 500 returns after a month of net job losses
Source: FRED PAYEMS (nonfarm payrolls); S&P 500
Unemployment Jumps 0.4 Points in a Month — The Labor Market Cracks
S&P 500 returns after a sharp single-month rise in the unemployment rate
Source: FRED UNRATE; S&P 500
Inflation Regimes · 8
CPI Inflation Above 4%
High-inflation regime and asset allocation
Source: FRED CPIAUCSL
Core PCE Above 3%
The Fed's preferred inflation measure runs hot
Source: FRED PCEPILFE
Core CPI Above 3%
Underlying inflation pressure persists
Source: FRED CPILFESL
CPI Returns to 2% Target
Inflation normalized — what changes
Source: FRED CPIAUCSL
Core Inflation Crosses 4% — When Price Pressure Becomes Embedded
S&P 500 returns after core CPI exceeds 4% year over year
Source: FRED CPILFESL (core CPI); S&P 500
Inflation Crosses 3% — Above the Fed's Comfort Zone
S&P 500 returns after headline CPI exceeds 3% year over year
Source: FRED CPIAUCSL; S&P 500
Inflation Crosses 5% — Entering a Hot-Inflation Regime
S&P 500 returns after headline CPI exceeds 5% year over year
Source: FRED CPIAUCSL; S&P 500
Disinflation Shock — Inflation Rolls Over Fast
S&P 500 returns after year-over-year CPI drops a full point in three months
Source: FRED CPIAUCSL; S&P 500
Sector Rotations · 16
Market Breadth Collapses
When fewer than 40% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day MA
Source: S&P 500 breadth
Momentum Factor Extreme (Top vs. Bottom Decile Spread)
When momentum gets stretched
Source: S&P 500 constituents
Equal-Weight S&P 500 vs. Cap-Weighted
A proxy for concentration risk
Source: RSP vs SPY
Price-Breadth Divergence
Index at highs but internals deteriorating
Source: NYSE advance-decline
Sector Leadership Rotation
When last year's winner becomes this year's laggard
Source: GICS sector ETFs
Breadth Thrust Signal
The most reliable bull market confirmation
Source: NYSE advance-decline
NYSE Advance-Decline Line
Cumulative market breadth since 1965
Source: NYSE advance-decline data
The Magnificent 7 vs. the S&P 500
Equal-weight mega-cap basket against the index, indexed to 100
Source: Constituent daily closes and S&P 500; basket is equal-weight, rebalanced daily
What Each Sector Costs — Forward P/E, Right Now
Tech vs. Health Care vs. Communications vs. the rest of the S&P 500, plus the Mag 7
Source: S&P 500 member multiples from the screener overview cache; medians computed server-side
Defensive Rotation — Staples Take the Lead
S&P 500 returns after consumer staples beat the index by 5% in three months
Source: Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) and S&P 500 (SPY)
Energy Sector Bear Market — Drawdowns in the Market's Most Volatile Sector
S&P 500 returns after the energy sector falls 20% from its one-year high
Source: Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE); S&P 500
Financial Sector Bear Market — When Bank Stocks Break Down
S&P 500 returns after financials fall 20% from their one-year high
Source: Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF); S&P 500
Growth-to-Value Rotation — When the Market's Leadership Flips
S&P 500 returns after growth stocks lag value by 5% in three months
Source: S&P 500 Growth (IVW) and S&P 500 Value (IVE); S&P 500
International Stocks Wake Up — Non-US Markets Take the Lead
S&P 500 returns after developed international beats US stocks by 5% in three months
Source: iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) and S&P 500 (SPY)
Small-Cap Breakout — Risk Appetite Returns
S&P 500 returns after the Russell 2000 beats the index by 5% in a month
Source: iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&P 500 (SPY)
Small-Cap Bear Market — Deeper, Faster, More Frequent
S&P 500 returns after the Russell 2000 falls 20% from its one-year high
Source: iShares Russell 2000 (IWM); S&P 500
Commodities & Crypto · 9
Crude Oil Above $100/Barrel
Energy shock threshold
Source: WTI Crude (CL=F)
Copper/Gold Ratio Declines Sharply
Industrial demand vs. safe-haven demand
Source: Copper futures + Gold futures
VVIX/VIX Ratio Elevated
Volatility of volatility — tail risk pricing
Source: CBOE VVIX and VIX
Bitcoin Dominance at Extremes
Crypto risk appetite proxy
Source: Bitcoin dominance
Natural Gas Spikes 50%+ in 30 Days
Energy cost shock for utilities and manufacturing
Source: Natural Gas futures (NG=F)
Bitcoin Enters a Bear Market — What It Means for Stocks
S&P 500 performance after Bitcoin falls 20% from its 52-week high
Source: Bitcoin (BTC-USD); S&P 500
Bitcoin Halvings — Equity Returns Around a Fixed Crypto Calendar
S&P 500 performance around each Bitcoin halving date
Source: Bitcoin halving dates (protocol schedule); S&P 500
Gold Breaks to an All-Time High — Safe-Haven Demand Peaks
S&P 500 returns after gold closes at a new record
Source: Gold futures (GC=F); S&P 500
Oil Spikes 50% in 90 Days — Anatomy of a Supply Shock
S&P 500 returns after crude rallies 50% in three months
Source: FRED DCOILWTICO (WTI crude); S&P 500
Seasonality · 6
Santa Claus Rally (or Lack Thereof)
Last 5 trading days of December + first 2 of January
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
January Barometer
As January goes, so goes the year
Source: S&P 500 monthly returns
Summer Seasonality (May-October)
Sell in May and go away?
Source: S&P 500 monthly returns
October: The Crash Month Myth
Why October's reputation is worse than its reality
Source: S&P 500 monthly returns
Sell in May Performance: 10-Year Rolling
Has the seasonal edge persisted?
Source: S&P 500 monthly returns
The Post-Midterm Window — History's Favorite Entry Point
S&P 500 performance from late October of midterm election years
Source: U.S. midterm election calendar; S&P 500
Historic Crashes · 10
The Great Crash — October 1929
The worst bear market in history
Source: S&P Composite via Robert Shiller dataset
Black Monday — October 19, 1987
The S&P 500 fell 22.6% in a single day
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
LTCM Crisis — August-October 1998
When a hedge fund nearly broke the financial system
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Dot-Com Peak — March 10, 2000
The end of the internet bubble
Source: Nasdaq Composite
Lehman Brothers Collapses — September 15, 2008
The GFC inflection point
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
S&P Downgrades U.S. Credit — August 5, 2011
The unprecedented sovereign downgrade
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
COVID Crash — March 23, 2020
The fastest bear market and recovery in history
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Silicon Valley Bank Collapse — March 10, 2023
2nd largest bank failure in U.S. history
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
S&P 500 Breaks to a New All-Time High
Should you buy at the all-time high?
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
March 9, 2009 — The Generational Bottom
What buying the worst day of the GFC actually returned
Source: S&P 500
Geopolitical Shocks · 56
Iraq Invades Kuwait — August 2, 1990
Markets and the Gulf War
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Iraq War Begins — March 20, 2003
The 'shock and awe' moment
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Brexit Referendum — June 23, 2016
The UK votes to leave the EU
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Russia Invades Ukraine — February 24, 2022
The largest European war since WWII begins
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Pearl Harbor Attack — December 7, 1941
Dow Jones forward returns after the surprise attack that drew the U.S. into WWII
Source: S&P 500 (S&P 90 splice pre-1957); editorial context cites contemporaneous Dow levels
Korean War Begins — June 25, 1950
North Korea invades the South; markets recover in weeks
Source: S&P 500 (S&P 90 splice pre-1957); editorial context cites contemporaneous Dow levels
Cuban Missile Crisis — October 16-28, 1962
13 days at the nuclear brink; market recovered in days
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Yom Kippur War & OPEC Oil Embargo — October 1973
The first oil shock and the 1973-74 bear market
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Nixon Resignation — August 9, 1974
First presidential resignation in US history
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Iranian Revolution & Hostage Crisis — 1979-1981
The second oil shock meets the Volcker tightening
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Falklands War — April-June 1982
A geopolitical shock invisible to US equities
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Tiananmen Square Massacre — June 4, 1989
How markets process authoritarian crackdowns
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Soviet Union Collapse — December 25, 1991
End of the Cold War and removal of existential risk
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Oklahoma City Bombing — April 19, 1995
Deadliest domestic terror attack pre-9/11; markets barely reacted
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Asian Financial Crisis — July 1997
Thai baht collapse triggers EM contagion; US market shrugs
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Russian Ruble Crisis and Default — August 17, 1998
Sovereign default, LTCM contagion, and a rapid recovery
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
India-Pakistan Kargil War — May-July 1999
Nuclear-armed conflict the US market ignored
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
9/11 Terrorist Attacks — September 11, 2001
S&P 500 forward returns after the deadliest terrorist attack on U.S. soil
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Argentine Sovereign Default — December 2001
Largest sovereign default in history (at the time); US equities unaffected
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
SARS Outbreak — March-July 2003
First modern pandemic scare tests global markets
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Madrid Train Bombings — March 11, 2004
Al-Qaeda attacks test post-9/11 market resilience
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
London 7/7 Bombings — July 7, 2005
Coordinated attacks on London transport; S&P 500 closed higher
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Hurricane Katrina — August 29, 2005
Costliest US natural disaster and the oil price shock
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
European Sovereign Debt Crisis — May 2010
Greek contagion threatens the eurozone
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Arab Spring Begins — 2010-2011
Revolutions sweep the Middle East and North Africa
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Fukushima Nuclear Disaster — March 11, 2011
Earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown rattle global markets
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Libya Civil War / NATO Intervention — 2011
Oil supply shock from the Arab Spring's most violent chapter
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Boston Marathon Bombing — April 15, 2013
Domestic terror and the post-9/11 recovery pattern
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Crimea Annexation — March 2014
Russia takes Crimea; Western sanctions imposed; markets shrug
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Ebola Crisis Reaches the U.S. — October 2014
West Africa outbreak triggers brief domestic panic
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Syria Civil War / ISIS Rise — 2014
Maximum Middle East chaos, zero equity impact
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Chinese Yuan Devaluation — August 11, 2015
PBoC shock devaluation triggers global selloff
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Greek Debt Crisis / Grexit Scare — June-July 2015
First developed-nation IMF default and eurozone exit fears
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Paris Terror Attacks — November 13, 2015
Coordinated ISIS attacks kill 130 in Paris; markets unaffected
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
US-Iran JCPOA Nuclear Deal and Withdrawal — 2015 / 2018
Diplomacy moves oil, not equities
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Trump Election Surprise — November 8, 2016
Polls predicted Clinton; markets reversed overnight
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
North Korea ICBM Tests — July-September 2017
Nuclear-capable missiles, 'fire and fury,' and a market that shrugged
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
US-China Trade War Begins — March 2018
Tariff escalation and the Q4 2018 sell-off
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Turkish Lira Crisis — August 2018
EM currency contagion fears and US equity resilience
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
US Government Shutdown — December 2018 to January 2019
Longest shutdown in US history; market rallied 10% during it
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Hong Kong Protests and National Security Law — 2019-2020
Massive pro-democracy protests and China's crackdown
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Soleimani Strike — January 3, 2020
US drone strike kills Iran's top general; markets shrug within days
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
January 6 Capitol Riot — January 6, 2021
Insurrection at the US Capitol; market closed higher
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Suez Canal Blockage (Ever Given) — March 23-29, 2021
$9.6B/day in trade halted for 6 days; S&P 500 hit a new high
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
China Evergrande Crisis — September 2021
Fears of 'China's Lehman moment' and US market resilience
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
US-China Chip Export Controls — October 7, 2022
Biden administration restricts advanced semiconductor exports to China
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Israel-Hamas War / October 7 Attack — October 7, 2023
Markets price a contained regional conflict
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Houthi Red Sea Shipping Attacks — 2023-2024
Massive supply-chain disruption, zero S&P 500 impact
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
OPEC Production Cuts and Oil Shocks — Composite Pattern
How surprise supply cuts ripple through equities
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
US Debt Ceiling Crises — Composite Pattern
Political brinksmanship creates volatility but never default
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Presidential Election Year Cycle — Pattern
S&P 500 performance across the 4-year presidential term
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Midterm Election Rally — Pattern
The strongest repeating pattern in the election cycle
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Assassination Attempts on US Presidents — Composite Pattern
JFK (1963), Reagan (1981), Trump (2024): markets focus on continuity
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Nuclear Threat Scares — Composite Pattern
Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), India-Pakistan (1998), North Korea (2006-2017), Russia-Ukraine (2022)
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
The Morning After a Presidential Election
S&P 500 forward paths from the first session after all 25 elections since 1928
Source: S&P 500; election days are statutory (2 U.S.C. 7)
The 2025 Reciprocal-Tariff Shock
S&P 500 forward path from the April 2025 announcement
Source: S&P 500; date verified: White House Executive Order 14257
Behavioral Finance · 13
Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market
Growth of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 since 1980
Source: S&P 500 total return
The Cost of Missing the Best Days
How missing just 10 of the best trading days destroys returns
Source: S&P 500 daily returns
The Decade That Costs You Half Your Wealth
Starting at 25 vs. 35: a 10-year head start doubles the outcome
Source: Computed at 8% annualized return
Last Year's Winner Is Rarely This Year's Winner
Annual asset class returns ranked
Source: SPY, IWM, EFA, EEM, AGG, VNQ, DJP
The Emotional Cycle of Investing
Euphoria at the top, capitulation at the bottom
Source: Conceptual framework (no data source)
Cash Is Not Safe — It Just Loses Slowly
Real purchasing power of $10,000 in cash vs. stocks vs. bonds since 1970
Source: S&P 500, US Agg Bond, CPI and FRED
Lump Sum Beats Dollar-Cost Averaging 68% of the Time
DCA is an emotional strategy, not an optimal one
Source: S&P 500 total return
Investor Sentiment Is a Contrarian Indicator
Bullish sentiment vs. forward 12-month S&P 500 returns
Source: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment via FRED
The 60/40 Portfolio Is Not Dead
Long-term performance of a simple balanced portfolio
Source: SPY + AGG
No 20-Year Period Has Ever Lost Money in the S&P 500
Rolling 10-year and 20-year annualized returns since 1930
Source: S&P 500 total return
Most Active Managers Underperform Their Benchmark
Percentage of active funds trailing the S&P 500
Source: S&P Global SPIVA Scorecard
A 1% Fee Costs You 25% of Your Wealth Over 30 Years
Growth of $100,000 at different expense ratios
Source: Computed at 8% gross return
The Average Investor Earns 3-4% Less Than the Market
The 'behavior gap' between fund returns and investor returns
Source: Dalbar QAIB Annual Study
Market History · 8
Bull Markets Last 5x Longer Than Bear Markets
Duration and magnitude of every bull and bear since 1929
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices research
Every Bear Market Has Fully Recovered
Time to full recovery from every 20%+ drawdown since 1929
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
Pullbacks Are the Admission Fee to Long-Term Returns
Frequency of 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% drawdowns per decade
Source: S&P 500 daily closes
The Stock Market Is Not the Economy
S&P 500 vs. GDP growth — the disconnect is real
Source: S&P 500 + FRED GDP
$10,000 Invested in 1970 Is Worth Over $2.5 Million Today
The power of staying invested across five decades of crises
Source: S&P 500 total return
Today's Market Is Not the Dot-Com Bubble
Comparing current fundamentals to 1999-2000
Source: S&P 500
Global Diversification Protects Against Lost Decades
US vs. international vs. global portfolio across different decades
Source: SPY, EFA, EEM
Market Concentration Is High But Not Unprecedented
Weight of top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 over time
Source: S&P 500 constituents
Economics & Inflation · 3
A Dollar in 1970 Buys 13 Cents Today
The silent destruction of purchasing power
Source: FRED CPIAUCSL
U.S. Federal Debt Has Passed 120% of GDP
Public debt as a percentage of GDP since 1966
Source: FRED GFDEGDQ188S
The Equity Risk Premium Is Shrinking
S&P 500 earnings yield minus 10Y Treasury yield
Source: FRED DGS10 + S&P 500 forward P/E
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For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.