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Event studies, historical analogs, and comparison charts computed from market data — with analyst talking points for client conversations. Built for RIAs who need to explain what is happening and why it matters.
S&P 500 returns after VIX closes above 30
S&P 500 returns after VIX closes above 40
S&P 500 returns after VIX closes above 50
Forward returns after a -3% session
Forward returns after a -5% session
Are big up days a buy or a bear-trap?
When 30-day actual vol crosses 25% annualized
When fear spikes 100% in a week
VIX (implied) vs. 30-day realized volatility on the S&P 500
The routine pullback threshold
The textbook correction
Entering a textbook bear market
Forward returns from extreme drawdowns
Technology sector corrections
Tech enters bear territory
The most overhyped technical signal in finance
The most-watched recession indicator
The Fed's preferred recession signal
When the curve normalizes — the late-cycle alarm
Higher-for-longer rate regime
The restrictive rate threshold
10Y TIPS yield crosses 2% — genuinely restrictive
Credit stress emerges
Strong dollar regime and global implications
First rate hike after an easing period
Easing begins — what comes next
Aggressive tightening signal
The most aggressive single-meeting move
When the Fed cuts big, something is wrong
Balance sheet expansion begins
Balance sheet reduction begins
Unemployment rate rises 0.5pp from its 12-month low
Labor market deterioration in real-time
The traditional recession threshold
The Fed's own preferred recession model input
Corporate profits contract
When analysts collectively slash expectations
A large miss to consensus expectations
High-inflation regime and asset allocation
The Fed's preferred inflation measure runs hot
Underlying inflation pressure persists
Inflation normalized — what changes
When fewer than 40% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day MA
When momentum gets stretched
A proxy for concentration risk
Index at highs but internals deteriorating
When last year's winner becomes this year's laggard
The most reliable bull market confirmation
Cumulative market breadth since 1965
Energy shock threshold
Industrial demand vs. safe-haven demand
Volatility of volatility — tail risk pricing
Crypto risk appetite proxy
Energy cost shock for utilities and manufacturing
Last 5 trading days of December + first 2 of January
As January goes, so goes the year
Sell in May and go away?
Why October's reputation is worse than its reality
Has the seasonal edge persisted?
The worst bear market in history
The S&P 500 fell 22.6% in a single day
When a hedge fund nearly broke the financial system
The end of the internet bubble
The GFC inflection point
The unprecedented sovereign downgrade
The fastest bear market and recovery in history
2nd largest bank failure in U.S. history
Should you buy at the all-time high?
Markets and the Gulf War
The 'shock and awe' moment
The UK votes to leave the EU
The largest European war since WWII begins
Dow Jones forward returns after the surprise attack that drew the U.S. into WWII
North Korea invades the South; markets recover in weeks
13 days at the nuclear brink; market recovered in days
The first oil shock and the 1973-74 bear market
First presidential resignation in US history
The second oil shock meets the Volcker tightening
A geopolitical shock invisible to US equities
How markets process authoritarian crackdowns
End of the Cold War and removal of existential risk
Deadliest domestic terror attack pre-9/11; markets barely reacted
Thai baht collapse triggers EM contagion; US market shrugs
Sovereign default, LTCM contagion, and a rapid recovery
Nuclear-armed conflict the US market ignored
S&P 500 forward returns after the deadliest terrorist attack on U.S. soil
Largest sovereign default in history (at the time); US equities unaffected
First modern pandemic scare tests global markets
Al-Qaeda attacks test post-9/11 market resilience
Coordinated attacks on London transport; S&P 500 closed higher
Costliest US natural disaster and the oil price shock
Greek contagion threatens the eurozone
Revolutions sweep the Middle East and North Africa
Earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown rattle global markets
Oil supply shock from the Arab Spring's most violent chapter
Domestic terror and the post-9/11 recovery pattern
Russia takes Crimea; Western sanctions imposed; markets shrug
West Africa outbreak triggers brief domestic panic
Maximum Middle East chaos, zero equity impact
PBoC shock devaluation triggers global selloff
First developed-nation IMF default and eurozone exit fears
Coordinated ISIS attacks kill 130 in Paris; markets unaffected
Diplomacy moves oil, not equities
Polls predicted Clinton; markets reversed overnight
Nuclear-capable missiles, 'fire and fury,' and a market that shrugged
Tariff escalation and the Q4 2018 sell-off
EM currency contagion fears and US equity resilience
Longest shutdown in US history; market rallied 10% during it
Massive pro-democracy protests and China's crackdown
US drone strike kills Iran's top general; markets shrug within days
Insurrection at the US Capitol; market closed higher
$9.6B/day in trade halted for 6 days; S&P 500 hit a new high
Fears of 'China's Lehman moment' and US market resilience
Biden administration restricts advanced semiconductor exports to China
Markets price a contained regional conflict
Massive supply-chain disruption, zero S&P 500 impact
How surprise supply cuts ripple through equities
Political brinksmanship creates volatility but never default
S&P 500 performance across the 4-year presidential term
The strongest repeating pattern in the election cycle
JFK (1963), Reagan (1981), Trump (2024): markets focus on continuity
Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), India-Pakistan (1998), North Korea (2006-2017), Russia-Ukraine (2022)
Growth of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 since 1980
How missing just 10 of the best trading days destroys returns
Starting at 25 vs. 35: a 10-year head start doubles the outcome
Annual asset class returns ranked
Euphoria at the top, capitulation at the bottom
Real purchasing power of $10,000 in cash vs. stocks vs. bonds since 1970
DCA is an emotional strategy, not an optimal one
Bullish sentiment vs. forward 12-month S&P 500 returns
Long-term performance of a simple balanced portfolio
Rolling 10-year and 20-year annualized returns since 1930
Percentage of active funds trailing the S&P 500
Growth of $100,000 at different expense ratios
The 'behavior gap' between fund returns and investor returns
Duration and magnitude of every bull and bear since 1929
Time to full recovery from every 20%+ drawdown since 1929
Frequency of 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% drawdowns per decade
S&P 500 vs. GDP growth — the disconnect is real
The power of staying invested across five decades of crises
Comparing current fundamentals to 1999-2000
US vs. international vs. global portfolio across different decades
Weight of top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 over time
The silent destruction of purchasing power
Public debt as a percentage of GDP since 1966
S&P 500 earnings yield minus 10Y Treasury yield
S&P 500 forward paths from all nine chair-nomination announcements, overlaid
S&P 500 forward paths from the first session after all 25 elections since 1928
Equal-weight mega-cap basket against the index, indexed to 100
Tech vs. Health Care vs. Communications vs. the rest of the S&P 500, plus the Mag 7
S&P 500 forward path from the April 2025 announcement
When a funding trade broke: Nikkei -12%, VIX above 60, S&P -3%
What buying the worst day of the GFC actually returned
S&P 500 performance after Bitcoin falls 20% from its 52-week high
S&P 500 performance around each Bitcoin halving date
S&P 500 returns after University of Michigan sentiment falls below 70
S&P 500 returns after core CPI exceeds 4% year over year
S&P 500 returns after headline CPI exceeds 3% year over year
S&P 500 returns after headline CPI exceeds 5% year over year
S&P 500 returns after year-over-year CPI drops a full point in three months
S&P 500 returns after consumer staples beat the index by 5% in three months
S&P 500 returns after the energy sector falls 20% from its one-year high
S&P 500 returns after financials fall 20% from their one-year high
S&P 500 returns after gold closes at a new record
S&P 500 returns after growth stocks lag value by 5% in three months
S&P 500 returns after developed international beats US stocks by 5% in three months
S&P 500 performance from each NBER-dated recession start
S&P 500 performance from each NBER-dated recession end
S&P 500 returns after a month of net job losses
S&P 500 returns after crude rallies 50% in three months
S&P 500 performance from late October of midterm election years
S&P 500 returns after the Russell 2000 beats the index by 5% in a month
S&P 500 returns after the Russell 2000 falls 20% from its one-year high
S&P 500 returns after a sharp single-month rise in the unemployment rate