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The largest European war since WWII begins
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 triggered a 5% S&P 500 decline in the first week. Despite energy price spikes and geopolitical escalation, the equity decline was driven more by the Fed's rate hikes than by the war itself.
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The 2022 bear market (-25%) was primarily driven by the Fed's aggressive rate hiking cycle, not the war. The invasion was a secondary factor that exacerbated energy inflation.
The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 20% in the first month. European dependence on Russian energy created genuine economic vulnerability that US markets did not face.
Oil hit $130/barrel in March 2022 then fell below $80 by year-end. Wheat doubled then halved. Commodity spikes from geopolitical events are historically transitory.
When war headlines hit, resist repricing your equity view on the event itself — reprice the second-order path: commodities, inflation, and the policy response. The portfolio question in February 2022 was inflation duration, and it still would have been without the war.