ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Iran interdiction of Persian Gulf transit for ≥7 days.
ProbabilityLoading…
Prior
8%
Analyst estimate
8%est
Probability trend
Trigger conditionsWatch list
IRGC fast-boat raids
Tanker insurance suspension
Combat sortie
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Expert consensus
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History says
event playbook
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Sensitivity analysisWhat flips the posterior?
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Outcomes by assetTop 4
Symbol
Reason
Δ
BZ=F
Brent spike on supply shock
+18%
XOM
Integrated US oil benefits
+9%
MPC
Refining margin expansion
+6%
DAL
Jet fuel cost pass-through
−4%
Emerging scenarios
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Scenario correlation matrix
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Calibration dashboardEngine accuracy
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Forward-looking projection based on stated assumptions. Actual results will differ — possibly materially — from any figure shown. No outcome is guaranteed. Estimates are not investment advice and should not be the basis for any investment decision.