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The GFC inflection point
Lehman's bankruptcy triggered a global financial crisis. The S&P 500 fell an additional 46% from Lehman's failure to the March 2009 bottom. The system came closer to total collapse than most realize.
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
TARP ($700B), Fed rate cuts to zero, QE1 ($1.75T), and government guarantees of money market funds collectively prevented a 1930s-style deflationary collapse.
From March 9, 2009 to March 2024, the S&P 500 returned approximately +850% (15.5% annualized). This 15-year bull market was the longest in history.
Mutual fund outflows peaked in March 2009 — the exact month of the low. Retail investors withdrew $150B in Q1 2009, locking in maximum losses and missing the recovery.
Put automatic mechanisms in place before the next systemic scare — scheduled contributions and standing rebalance rules — because fund outflows peaked in the exact month of the 2009 bottom, and automation is how you stay out of that statistic.