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Last 5 trading days of December + first 2 of January
The Santa Claus Rally (last 5 trading days of the year + first 2 of January) has produced positive returns approximately 75% of the time since 1950. Yale Hirsch's dictum: 'If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.'
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
Years with a positive SCR saw above-average full-year returns. Years where the SCR was negative saw below-average returns. The signal is asymmetric — absence matters more than presence.
Tax-loss harvesting ends by late December, pension fund rebalancing flows hit, and new-year allocations begin. These mechanical flows create a temporary bid.
The effect is small (median +1.4%) and unreliable. It's useful as a narrative tool and a weak seasonal overlay, not as a basis for tactical moves.
Keep year-end moves anchored to the calendar's real deadlines — tax-loss harvesting, contribution limits, scheduled rebalancing — rather than to whether the rally shows up; its absence is at most a cue to double-check risk levels, never a reason to trade.