QE announcements (Nov 2008, Nov 2010, Sep 2012, Mar 2020) have consistently produced immediate positive equity returns. The mechanism: the Fed buying bonds pushes investors into riskier assets (the 'portfolio balance channel').
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Every historical instance, overlaid — S&P 500 forward path from the event
Each instance (n=4)Median path25th-75th percentileCurrent: 2020
Median forward returns by horizon
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 4 occurrences.
Based on 4 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2020-03-15.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: FRED WALCL · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 4 of 4
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2008-11-25
+1.8%
+29.5%
+110.8%
2010-11-03
+2.2%
+3.3%
+75.3%
2012-09-13
-2.1%
+16.8%
+71.5%
2020-03-16
+16.6%
+66.1%
+137.3%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
QE is unambiguously bullish for risk assets
Every QE announcement in US history has been followed by positive 6-month equity returns. The mechanism is liquidity injection + yield suppression forcing capital into equities.
'Don't fight the Fed' is most applicable during QE
The Fed buying $80B+ per month in bonds is the most powerful market tailwind possible. Asset allocation during QE should tilt toward risk assets — fighting this flow is expensive.
QE inflates all assets, including housing and commodities
QE doesn't just lift stocks — it compresses yields across all markets, pushing up home prices, commodities, and credit. This has distributional consequences worth discussing with clients.
For your portfolio
Liquidity injections at this scale have historically lifted risk assets broadly, so the practical review is whether you are inadvertently underweight: cash accumulated during the preceding stress now earns a suppressed yield while the policy tailwind favors invested capital. Rebalancing promptly back to full equity targets has historically beaten waiting for a better price.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.