QT announcements (Oct 2017, Jun 2022) signal the Fed is withdrawing liquidity by letting bonds mature off its balance sheet. The 2017-19 QT ended with the repo market blowup in September 2019. The 2022+ QT is ongoing.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Every historical instance, overlaid — S&P 500 forward path from the event
Each instance (n=4)Median path25th-75th percentileCurrent: 2022
Median forward returns by horizon
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 4 occurrences.
Based on 4 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2022-06-01.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: FRED WALCL · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 4 of 4
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2013-05-22
-3.8%
+14.3%
+65.1%
2015-12-16
-9.3%
+9.1%
+79.6%
2017-10-02
+1.8%
+15.6%
+49.9%
2022-06-01
-6.7%
+4.4%
—
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
QT is a liquidity drain, but slower than QE was a boost
The Fed adds liquidity aggressively (QE: $120B/month in 2020) but removes it cautiously (QT: $95B/month cap in 2022). The asymmetry means QT's market impact is more gradual.
QT has broken things before
The 2017-19 QT eventually caused the September 2019 repo rate spike, forcing the Fed to abruptly restart balance sheet expansion. QT's endpoint is determined by market stress, not a preset target.
Equity performance during QT has been surprisingly positive
The S&P 500 rose approximately 25% during the 2017-18 QT period and rallied through much of the 2022-24 QT period. QT is a headwind but not necessarily a dealbreaker for equities.
For your portfolio
Quantitative tightening drains liquidity slowly until something snaps quickly — the 2019 repo blowup ended the last attempt — so review fragility rather than direction: consider trimming leverage or short-term borrowing that depends on smooth funding markets, while noting equities themselves have historically weathered QT better than feared.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
LIVENYSE — · ETFEED MKT · — msBUILD ced8372
ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.