Geopolitical Shocks · static refresh

Nuclear Threat Scares — Composite Pattern

Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), India-Pakistan (1998), North Korea (2006-2017), Russia-Ukraine (2022)

Markets have never priced in actual nuclear conflict. During the Cuban Missile Crisis the Dow fell approximately 5.3%. North Korea conducted six nuclear tests — the largest US equity reaction was a brief 1% dip. When Putin placed nuclear forces on high alert in February 2022, the S&P 500 closed higher that day.

ALAN INTELLIGENCE

ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com

ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30

Every historical instance, overlaid — S&P 500 forward path from the event

Each instance (n=3)Median path25th-75th percentileCurrent: 2022

Median forward returns by horizon

Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 3 occurrences.

Based on 3 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2022-02-27.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.

alanglobalintelligence.com

ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30

Historical occurrencesshowing 3 of 3

Date	1M return	1Y return	5Y return
1962-10-23	+15.1%	+36.5%	+76.5%
2017-08-08	-0.4%	+15.5%	+70.1%
2022-02-28	+5.9%	-9.7%	—

What history says

Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.

The closest call produced a garden-variety pullback

The Cuban Missile Crisis drawdown of roughly 5.3% recovered within days. One year later, the Dow was up 27%.

Six North Korean nuclear tests produced zero lasting damage

The S&P 500's largest single-day reaction was approximately -1%. Every decline reversed within days.

Markets cannot price extinction and still function

If equity prices reflected even a small probability of nuclear exchange, no rational agent would hold long-duration assets.

For your portfolio

Recognize what this history can and cannot say: markets structurally cannot price a nuclear exchange, so shallow drawdowns during these scares reflect functioning markets, not proof of safety. The actionable version is to manage the risks a portfolio can actually address — inflation, rates, concentration, cash for life needs — rather than trading headlines no asset allocation can insure.

More Geopolitical Shocks charts

Iraq Invades Kuwait — August 2, 1990

Markets and the Gulf War

Iraq War Begins — March 20, 2003

The 'shock and awe' moment

Brexit Referendum — June 23, 2016

The UK votes to leave the EU

Russia Invades Ukraine — February 24, 2022

The largest European war since WWII begins

Pearl Harbor Attack — December 7, 1941

Dow Jones forward returns after the surprise attack that drew the U.S. into WWII

Korean War Begins — June 25, 1950

North Korea invades the South; markets recover in weeks

Open this chart in the full library.

A free ALAN account unlocks all the market-history charts, category browsing, and PNG export for presentations.

Open in ALAN Create free account

For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.

Date

1M return

1Y return

5Y return

1962-10-23

+15.1%

+36.5%

+76.5%

2017-08-08

-0.4%

+15.5%

+70.1%

2022-02-28

+5.9%

-9.7%

—