Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 triggered a 5% S&P 500 decline in the first week. Despite energy price spikes and geopolitical escalation, the equity decline was driven more by the Fed's rate hikes than by the war itself.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 1 occurrences.
Based on 1 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2022-02-24.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2022-02-24
+5.9%
-7.2%
—
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The market declined, but for rate reasons more than war reasons
The 2022 bear market (-25%) was primarily driven by the Fed's aggressive rate hiking cycle, not the war. The invasion was a secondary factor that exacerbated energy inflation.
European equities were more affected than US
The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 20% in the first month. European dependence on Russian energy created genuine economic vulnerability that US markets did not face.
Oil and wheat spiked then mean-reverted
Oil hit $130/barrel in March 2022 then fell below $80 by year-end. Wheat doubled then halved. Commodity spikes from geopolitical events are historically transitory.
For your portfolio
When war headlines hit, resist repricing your equity view on the event itself — reprice the second-order path: commodities, inflation, and the policy response. The portfolio question in February 2022 was inflation duration, and it still would have been without the war.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
LIVENYSE — · ETFEED MKT · — msBUILD ced8372
ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.