The Nasdaq peaked at 5,048 on March 10, 2000 and fell 78% over 30 months. The S&P 500 fell 49%. Recovery to the Nasdaq high took 15 years (2015). This remains the longest recovery in tech history.
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ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 1 occurrences.
Based on 1 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2000-03-10.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
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ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: Nasdaq Composite · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2000-03-10
+7.8%
-15.4%
-14.7%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
Valuations were genuinely insane — this is not a normal bear
At the peak, the Nasdaq traded at 175x trailing earnings. 80% of IPOs were unprofitable. Revenue multiples exceeded 100x for companies with no path to profitability.
The S&P 500 recovered in 7 years; the Nasdaq took 15
Because the S&P 500 had lower exposure to speculative tech, its recovery (2007) was much faster. Diversification beyond tech was the key differentiator.
Today is fundamentally different from 2000
The 'Magnificent 7' of 2024 collectively earn $300B+ in annual free cash flow. The dot-com leaders (Cisco, Intel, WorldCom, Pets.com) generated a fraction of that. Valuation context matters.
For your portfolio
Cap any single theme, however convincing, at a weight you could watch fall by three-quarters and take fifteen years to recover without derailing your plan; diversification beyond the era's favorite sector was what separated a 7-year recovery from a 15-year one.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.