Lehman's bankruptcy triggered a global financial crisis. The S&P 500 fell an additional 46% from Lehman's failure to the March 2009 bottom. The system came closer to total collapse than most realize.
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ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 1 occurrences.
Based on 1 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2008-09-15.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2008-09-15
-16.3%
-11.7%
+42.9%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The system survived because policy responded massively
TARP ($700B), Fed rate cuts to zero, QE1 ($1.75T), and government guarantees of money market funds collectively prevented a 1930s-style deflationary collapse.
The March 2009 low was the generational buying opportunity
From March 9, 2009 to March 2024, the S&P 500 returned approximately +850% (15.5% annualized). This 15-year bull market was the longest in history.
Most investors sold near the bottom
Mutual fund outflows peaked in March 2009 — the exact month of the low. Retail investors withdrew $150B in Q1 2009, locking in maximum losses and missing the recovery.
For your portfolio
Put automatic mechanisms in place before the next systemic scare — scheduled contributions and standing rebalance rules — because fund outflows peaked in the exact month of the 2009 bottom, and automation is how you stay out of that statistic.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.