Drawdowns of 30%+ are rare and concentrated: 1929-32, 1937, 1973-74, 2000-02, 2008-09, 2020. These represent genuine economic crises or systemic dislocations. Buying at these levels has produced exceptional long-term returns in every case.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Every historical instance, overlaid — S&P 500 forward path from the event
Each instance (n=9)Median path25th-75th percentileCurrent: 2020
Median forward returns by horizon
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 9 occurrences.
Based on 9 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2020-03-20.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 9 of 9
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
1929-10-29
+6.0%
-16.1%
-54.6%
1932-11-23
-4.1%
+48.9%
+65.1%
1937-10-05
-10.8%
+0.1%
-27.2%
1970-05-21
+6.8%
+40.1%
+25.3%
1974-08-14
-15.0%
+12.0%
+37.5%
1987-10-19
+8.1%
+22.9%
+81.2%
2001-09-17
+5.7%
-15.9%
+27.2%
2008-10-06
-4.8%
-0.2%
+56.6%
2020-03-20
+18.7%
+71.0%
+147.8%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The 5-year forward return has never been negative
Every instance of a -30% drawdown since 1929 has been followed by positive 5-year returns, including those that ultimately fell further (2008 went to -57%).
These are career-defining rebalancing opportunities
Advisors who systematically rebalanced into equities at -30% in 2008 and 2020 delivered transformative client outcomes. This is where advisory value is proven.
You cannot wait for the bottom
The bottom is only identifiable in hindsight. Systematic deployment at -30% captures most of the recovery even if the market falls further before reversing.
For your portfolio
Drawdowns this deep are where a staged-deployment rule matters most: consider committing rebalancing capital in fixed installments at pre-set levels rather than trying to call a bottom that is only visible in hindsight. Every -30% episode on record was followed by positive 5-year returns — including those that first fell further.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.