Fears of 'China's Lehman moment' and US market resilience
Evergrande, with over $300 billion in liabilities, teetered toward default. The S&P 500 fell approximately 4.7% in September 2021 then recovered fully within three weeks, rallying 6.7% in October.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 1 occurrences.
Based on 1 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2021-09-20.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2021-09-20
+3.7%
-11.5%
—
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The 'China Lehman' analog was wrong
Evergrande's creditors were overwhelmingly domestic Chinese banks, not interconnected global counterparties. US exposure was negligible.
Full recovery in three weeks
October 2021 delivered +6.7% — the best month of the year — reaching new all-time highs.
China's property sector did collapse — but markets had moved on
Evergrande was formally liquidated in January 2024. Yet the S&P 500 was at all-time highs by late 2021.
For your portfolio
Trace the creditors before accepting any systemic-crisis framing — Evergrande's liabilities sat overwhelmingly with domestic Chinese lenders, and US equities recovered in three weeks even as the developer eventually liquidated. Direct China property or China-heavy EM exposure deserved the scrutiny; the diversified core did not.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
LIVENYSE — · ETFEED MKT · — msBUILD ced8372
ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.