The November-April period has historically outperformed May-October by approximately 6% annualized since 1950. However, May-October returns are still positive on average (+3% annualized). 'Sell in May' is an oversimplification of a real but weak seasonal pattern.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Every historical instance, overlaid — S&P 500 forward path from the event
Each instance (n=11)Median path25th-75th percentileCurrent: 2024
Median forward returns by horizon
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 11 occurrences.
Based on 11 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2024-05-01.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 monthly returns · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 11 of 11
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2014-05-01
+2.2%
+11.9%
+56.4%
2015-05-01
+0.1%
-1.3%
+34.8%
2016-05-02
+0.9%
+14.9%
+100.1%
2017-05-01
+1.0%
+11.2%
+74.0%
2018-05-01
+1.9%
+9.9%
+54.1%
2019-05-01
-5.9%
-0.4%
+73.2%
2020-05-01
+8.8%
+48.1%
+98.9%
2021-05-03
+0.4%
-0.9%
+76.5%
2022-05-02
-1.3%
-1.6%
—
2023-05-01
+0.3%
+20.4%
—
2024-05-01
+5.2%
+12.6%
—
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The seasonal pattern is real but not tradeable
After transaction costs, taxes, and the risk of missing occasional strong summers (2020, 2023), mechanically selling in May has not outperformed buy-and-hold on an after-tax basis.
Use seasonality for risk management, not market timing
If you need to raise cash or reduce risk for any reason, doing so in May rather than November puts the odds slightly in your favor. But don't sell a good portfolio purely for seasonality.
Election years break the pattern
In presidential election years, the summer tends to be stronger than normal due to policy uncertainty resolution and campaign stimulus promises. 2024 followed this pattern.
For your portfolio
If you already need to raise cash for a known expense, the historical November-April edge argues mildly for doing it in spring rather than autumn — but selling a well-built portfolio purely for the season has not paid once taxes and the occasional strong summer are counted.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.