US Government Shutdown — December 2018 to January 2019
Longest shutdown in US history; market rallied 10% during it
The government shut down on December 22, 2018 for 35 days. The S&P 500 rallied roughly 10% DURING the shutdown as the Fed pivoted dovish. Government shutdowns have historically been non-events for equities.
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ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 1 occurrences.
Based on 1 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2018-12-24.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2018-12-24
+13.3%
+37.1%
+103.4%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The S&P 500 gained approximately 10% during the shutdown
The rally was driven by the Fed's dovish pivot on interest rates, not the shutdown resolution.
Shutdowns are statistically irrelevant to market direction
Across 21 government shutdowns, the average S&P 500 return during the closure is +0.1%.
Do not make portfolio changes over shutdowns
An investor who sold on shutdown fears missed a +10% bounce in five weeks.
For your portfolio
Shutdown brinksmanship has been statistically irrelevant to equities — the average return across 21 closures is roughly flat, and the 2018-19 market rallied about 10% while the government was dark. Treat shutdown headlines as a prompt to review nothing; the monetary backdrop, which actually drove that rally, deserves the attention instead.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.