The Morning After a Presidential Election
S&P 500 forward paths from the first session after all 25 elections since 1928
Every U.S. presidential election since 1928, one line per election: the S&P 500's path over the year following the first post-election trading session. The pattern that emerges is not partisan — it is that the market's first-year path after elections is dominated by the business cycle the winner inherits, not the winner.
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The best post-election years (1928, 1996, 2020) and the worst (1932, 2000, 2008) map to economic conditions, not parties. The market does not vote.
The 2016 overnight futures panic reversed by the next close. The 2020 contested count coincided with one of the strongest post-election weeks on record. Initial reactions have been unreliable signals.
Major legislative changes typically take 12-18 months to touch earnings. The market's day-one reaction prices a guess about that future — and the guess has often been wrong in both directions.
Do not position a portfolio around an election outcome. The overlay shows post-election paths spanning +45% to -35%, driven by recessions and recoveries already underway on election day. If a client wants to act on politics, redirect the energy to tax-lot planning and rebalancing — the two things an election year actually changes.