Oil supply shock from the Arab Spring's most violent chapter
The Libyan civil war erupted in February 2011. NATO airstrikes began March 19 and continued until Gaddafi was killed on October 20. Libyan oil production collapsed from 1.6 million barrels per day to near zero. Brent spiked above $126/barrel. The S&P 500 fell approximately 7% from its late-April peak through mid-June.
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ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 1 occurrences.
Based on 1 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2011-02-21.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
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ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2011-02-22
-1.4%
+3.2%
+48.4%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
Oil supply disruption was the primary transmission mechanism
The IEA coordinated a 60-million-barrel strategic reserve release — the first since Hurricane Katrina.
Markets price the oil impact, not the body count
Libya mattered to markets because it produced high-quality light sweet crude for European refiners.
The deeper 2011 drawdown was driven by credit risk, not geopolitics
The 19% peak-to-trough was caused by the US credit downgrade and Greek/Italian contagion.
For your portfolio
Oil is the transmission line to watch when a producer descends into war — Libya's lost barrels, not its politics, moved prices, and strategic reserve releases capped the damage. Consider evaluating energy exposure and fuel-cost-sensitive holdings against a temporary supply outage rather than repositioning the whole portfolio.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
LIVENYSE — · ETFEED MKT · — msBUILD ced8372
ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.