Domestic terror and the post-9/11 recovery pattern
Two pressure-cooker bombs killed 3 and injured 264 near the marathon finish line. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% that day — though weak China GDP data and a commodities rout were already driving losses before the 2:49 p.m. blasts. The VIX spiked 43% intraday. Markets reversed the entire decline within one week.
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ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 1 occurrences.
Based on 1 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2013-04-15.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
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ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2013-04-15
+6.3%
+17.9%
+72.5%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The 2.3% drop was not purely bombing-driven
Markets were already down sharply on disappointing Chinese GDP and a 9% gold crash. The bombing struck late in the session.
Full recovery within one week
The VIX, which spiked 43%, fell 15% the very next session. Within five trading days the index had recouped the entire drawdown.
Geopolitical fear is not fundamental risk
The bombing had no impact on corporate earnings, monetary policy, or credit conditions.
For your portfolio
The sober process point from April 2013 is attribution: much of that day's decline was already underway on macro data before the attack, and the entire move reversed within a week. Before acting on any violent headline, separate what the market was doing for fundamental reasons from what the tragedy added — the difference is usually the part that mean-reverts fastest.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.