Assassination Attempts on US Presidents — Composite Pattern
JFK (1963), Reagan (1981), Trump (2024): markets focus on continuity
When JFK was assassinated on November 22, 1963, the Dow fell 2.9% in 27 minutes then recovered fully in one trading session on reopening. When Reagan was shot March 30, 1981, the Dow dropped roughly 1% then rallied 1.2% the next day. When Trump survived an assassination attempt July 13, 2024, the S&P 500 rose 0.5% on Monday.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Every historical instance, overlaid — S&P 500 forward path from the event
Each instance (n=5)Median path25th-75th percentileCurrent: 2024
Median forward returns by horizon
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 5 occurrences.
Based on 5 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2024-07-15.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 5 of 5
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
1963-11-22
+6.8%
+23.2%
+49.4%
1975-09-05
+1.5%
+21.4%
+42.9%
1975-09-23
+6.8%
+26.9%
+51.7%
1981-03-30
-0.9%
-16.4%
+75.3%
2024-07-15
-3.5%
+11.8%
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What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
JFK was the worst case — and even it recovered in one session
The Dow gained 4.5% on November 26 — as investors priced in LBJ's policy continuity.
Trump 2024 — markets rallied on the news
The S&P 500 rose 0.5% and the Dow hit a record close. Political violence was immediately subordinated to policy probability.
Institutional stability is the variable that matters
Orderly succession, confirmed survival, and unchanged policy trajectory all signal the event is transitory. Markets price systems, not individuals.
For your portfolio
Approached with the gravity these events carry, the market record shows prices anchoring to institutional continuity — orderly succession and unchanged policy have historically limited even the worst case to roughly a single session's damage. The preparation is not a trade but an allocation stable enough that no single day's news can force your hand.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
LIVENYSE — · ETFEED MKT · — msBUILD ced8372
ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.