Assassination Attempts on US Presidents — Composite Pattern
JFK (1963), Reagan (1981), Trump (2024): markets focus on continuity
When JFK was assassinated on November 22, 1963, the Dow fell 2.9% in 27 minutes then recovered fully in one trading session on reopening. When Reagan was shot March 30, 1981, the Dow dropped roughly 1% then rallied 1.2% the next day. When Trump survived an assassination attempt July 13, 2024, the S&P 500 rose 0.5% on Monday.
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The Dow gained 4.5% on November 26 — as investors priced in LBJ's policy continuity.
The S&P 500 rose 0.5% and the Dow hit a record close. Political violence was immediately subordinated to policy probability.
Orderly succession, confirmed survival, and unchanged policy trajectory all signal the event is transitory. Markets price systems, not individuals.
Approached with the gravity these events carry, the market record shows prices anchoring to institutional continuity — orderly succession and unchanged policy have historically limited even the worst case to roughly a single session's damage. The preparation is not a trade but an allocation stable enough that no single day's news can force your hand.