Bull Markets Last 5x Longer Than Bear Markets
Duration and magnitude of every bull and bear since 1929
Per S&P Dow Jones Indices research: the average bull market has lasted 4.4 years and returned +155%. The average bear market has lasted 11.3 months and lost -36%. Bulls compound quietly; bears get the headlines.
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
Bull markets are 5x longer than bear markets on average. This means an investor is in a bull market approximately 80% of the time. The base state of the market is going up.
The average bull gains 155% while the average bear loses 36%. Even a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover — yet bulls have consistently delivered multiples of what bears take away.
Bear markets are interruptions in a long-term upward trend. They feel permanent in the moment but are temporary by definition. Every bear in history has ended.
Let the asymmetry set your default posture: with markets spending roughly 80% of the time in bull phases, a plan should treat bear markets as interruptions to be endured with reserves, not as the central case to position around.