US-Iran JCPOA Nuclear Deal and Withdrawal — 2015 / 2018
Diplomacy moves oil, not equities
Iran signed the JCPOA on July 14, 2015, lifting sanctions — oil declined. Trump withdrew on May 8, 2018 — oil spiked. In both cases the S&P 500 was largely indifferent. Diplomatic events repricing commodity supply rarely transmit to broad equity indices.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Every historical instance, overlaid — S&P 500 forward path from the event
Each instance (n=2)Median path25th-75th percentileCurrent: 2018
Median forward returns by horizon
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 2 occurrences.
Based on 2 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2018-05-08.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 2 of 2
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2015-07-14
-1.1%
+2.1%
+53.0%
2018-05-08
+3.7%
+7.4%
+54.9%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
Oil moved on both events; equities did not
The JCPOA pushed Brent lower; the withdrawal pushed it higher. The S&P 500 showed no significant reaction to either.
Saudi spare capacity absorbed the supply shock
Saudi Arabia increased production by approximately 1 million bbl/d between May and November 2018 to offset lost Iranian barrels.
Diplomatic headlines are commodity trades, not portfolio trades
Advisors fielding calls about Iran tensions should distinguish between oil-price implications (transitory) and equity-market implications (negligible).
For your portfolio
Diplomatic swings around oil producers are commodity events first — both the deal and the withdrawal moved crude while the index looked away, and spare capacity absorbed the supply shift. Consider limiting any response to your energy sleeve and fuel-sensitive names rather than the broad allocation.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
LIVENYSE — · ETFEED MKT · — msBUILD ced8372
ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.