ISIS captured Mosul on June 10, 2014 and declared a caliphate. The US began airstrikes in September. Despite this, the S&P 500 rose 11.4% for the year. Oil was collapsing — Brent fell from $112 in June to $57 by December — driven by surging US shale production.
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ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 1 occurrences.
Based on 1 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2014-06-10.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
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ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2014-06-10
+0.7%
+7.9%
+47.6%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
Definitive case study in supply-trumps-geopolitics
ISIS seized territory while oil fell 50%. US shale had added roughly 4 million bbl/d since 2010, dwarfing any potential disruption.
Falling oil acted as a consumer tax cut
Gasoline fell from $3.70 to $2.30 per gallon. For the US economy, falling oil was stimulative.
Geopolitics without an oil supply shock is noise for US equities
Libya 2011 (supply disrupted) moved markets. Syria/ISIS 2014 (supply unaffected) did not.
For your portfolio
Judge Middle East turmoil by the barrel count: with US shale surging, even a caliphate declared amid civil war could not lift oil, and equities rose double digits that year. During such conflicts the portfolio-relevant question is oil-supply math, not territorial maps — review energy-sensitive positions against it and leave the core alone.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.