Nuclear-capable missiles, 'fire and fury,' and a market that shrugged
North Korea tested two ICBMs, launched a missile over Japan, and detonated a thermonuclear device. Trump responded with 'fire and fury.' The S&P 500 pulled back roughly 3% in mid-August then recovered within weeks. The S&P 500 finished 2017 up over 19%.
ALAN INTELLIGENCE
ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 1 occurrences.
Based on 1 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2017-07-04.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2017-07-05
+1.6%
+12.5%
+60.4%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The market priced in zero probability of actual nuclear conflict
The VIX barely budged above 16. Options markets never signaled meaningful tail risk.
Fundamentals dominated: earnings growth was accelerating
S&P 500 earnings grew roughly 12% year-over-year in 2017, with tax-reform approaching.
Existential-sounding headlines rarely produce existential losses
Headlines read 'nuclear war possible.' The S&P 500 returned over 19% in 2017.
For your portfolio
Check what the options market believes before acting on apocalyptic headlines — through repeated missile tests the VIX barely stirred, and accelerating earnings carried the index to a strong year. When measured risk pricing and the news cycle diverge that widely, the portfolio case has usually sided with the earnings.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.