Coordinated bombings on Madrid commuter trains killed 193 people. European markets fell 2-3% on the day. The S&P 500 declined approximately 1.5% over the following sessions but stood at roughly the same level by March 31 — full recovery within three weeks.
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ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 1 occurrences.
Based on 1 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2004-03-11.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2004-03-11
+3.5%
+8.4%
-31.6%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
Foreign terrorism has minimal lasting US market impact
Unlike 9/11, the Madrid bombings affected a foreign market. The S&P 500's 1.5% dip and three-week recovery confirmed that non-US terrorism is a volatility event, not a valuation event.
Markets had learned the 9/11 playbook
By 2004, investors had internalized the lesson: terrorism creates a sharp shock followed by rapid mean-reversion.
Political shockwaves outlasted market shockwaves
The bombings toppled Spain's government three days later. The political consequences persisted for years; the market consequences lasted days.
For your portfolio
Treated with the sobriety the event deserves, the market lesson is narrow: terrorism abroad has historically produced a shallow, short-lived US equity dip because it leaves earnings, credit, and policy untouched. A written plan that classifies such volatility as noise spares you from selling into a recovery measured in weeks.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
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ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.