Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum, then escalated with tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports. The S&P 500 peaked September 20 and fell approximately 20% intraday by Christmas Eve. A 'Phase One' deal was signed January 15, 2020.
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ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 1 occurrences.
Based on 1 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2018-03-22.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
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ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2018-03-22
+1.0%
+5.8%
+50.2%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
The sell-off had multiple drivers, not just tariffs
The Fed was hiking to 2.25-2.50% and global PMIs were deteriorating. Trade-war uncertainty was a meaningful contributor but not the sole cause.
Escalation timelines matter more than initial announcements
The March tariff announcement barely moved markets. Each retaliatory round gradually eroded earnings visibility.
Recovery was swift once a deal framework emerged
From the Christmas Eve low, the S&P 500 rallied approximately 25% by April 2019.
For your portfolio
Trade wars damage portfolios by increments — each retaliation round eroded earnings visibility in 2018, and the drawdown compounded with Fed tightening. Rather than trading the announcements, consider reviewing which holdings carry tariff-exposed cost structures or China revenue, since that is where escalation genuinely lands.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
LIVENYSE — · ETFEED MKT · — msBUILD ced8372
ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.