Revolutions sweep the Middle East and North Africa
Pro-democracy uprisings toppled governments in Tunisia and Egypt, then escalated into civil war in Libya and Syria. Libya's oil production — roughly 1.65 million barrels per day — fell by over 60%, spiking Brent above $125/barrel. The S&P 500 fell approximately 7% during the acute Libya phase then recovered within weeks.
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ALAN INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.com
ALAN IntelligenceData as of 2026-08-30
Bars: median S&P 500 forward return. Whiskers: 25th-75th percentile. n = 1 occurrences.
Based on 1 historical occurrences. Last triggered: 2011-01-25.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation. Data from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
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ALAN GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE · alanglobalintelligence.comSource: S&P 500 daily closes · Generated 2026-08-30
Historical occurrencesshowing 1 of 1
Date
1M return
1Y return
5Y return
2011-01-25
+1.2%
+2.7%
+46.6%
What history says
Editorial commentary written by ALAN analysts. Figures cited below are analyst-authored context — they are not derived from the chart above and may reflect different windows or sources.
Oil supply disruption was the transmission mechanism
Libya exported 1.3 million barrels per day to Europe. The IEA coordinated a 60-million-barrel strategic reserve release.
The equity decline was shallow because the shock was contained
Markets feared contagion to Saudi Arabia. When unrest remained in non-Gulf producers, the risk premium quickly faded.
The bigger 2011 drawdown came from an unrelated source
The S&P 500's maximum 2011 drawdown was approximately 19%, driven by the US credit downgrade in August.
For your portfolio
The market's question during regional upheaval is whether oil supply is actually disrupted and whether unrest can reach the major producers — the 2011 equity dip faded once it stayed out of the Gulf. Watching that supply question, and reviewing how a sustained fuel-price spike would touch your holdings, beats trading the revolution headlines.
For information and research only. Not investment advice. ALAN does not place trades or execute orders. Figures come from the sources shown and can lag the market; verify independently before making decisions. Past performance is not predictive of future results.
LIVENYSE — · ETFEED MKT · — msBUILD ced8372
ALAN is not a broker-dealer or investment advisor. All data is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.