Herding, FOMO & Overconfidence
Why crowds are wrong at extremes and expertise is overestimated
In late January 2021, GameStop traded at \$483 a share intraday — up roughly 15x in three weeks on the back of a coordinated retail-driven short squeeze. By mid-February it had fallen to \$40. Every retail investor who bought at \$300 in 'because everyone was talking about it' lost roughly 87% in three weeks.
Two years earlier, in February-March 2020, the S&P 500 fell 34% in 33 days as retail investors panic-sold their accounts. By August 2020, the index had fully recovered. The investors who held returned to even; the ones who sold near the lows locked in losses they could never recover.
Both episodes are the same bias in different directions: the human instinct to do what the crowd is doing, accelerated by the velocity of modern markets and amplified by social media. Following the herd is the most expensive consistent mistake in retail investing.
That is the opening. Finishing a lesson is where it stops being interesting and starts being useful: the full lesson runs to 6 sections and ends with 3 practice questions. A free account is what opens the rest, and the other 255 lessons in the Academy with it. No card.
What this lesson covers
- 1FOMO — herding's emotional accelerant
- 2Barber & Odean's quantification — trading hazardousness as a function of turnover
- 3Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth — Barber & Odean 2000
- 4Sentiment extremes have been contrarian indicators — three episodes
- 5Where to see this on the platform
- 6Summary