FX Markets
DXY, the dollar smile, and the carry trade — how the world's largest financial market translates macro into currency moves
The Bank for International Settlements' Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange Markets — the authoritative reference data on global FX market structure — reported in the April 2022 survey results that global daily FX turnover averaged approximately $7.5 trillion per day, more than three times the daily turnover of all global equity markets combined (per the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey 2022 at bis.org/statistics/rpfx22.
htm). The next BIS Triennial survey is conducted in April 2025 with results expected in late 2025; preliminary indicators from BIS's quarterly OTC derivatives statistics suggest continued growth in turnover. The U.
S. dollar is on one side of approximately 88% of all FX trades (per the same BIS 2022 survey), reflecting the dollar's role as the global reserve and invoicing currency despite the U.S.
economy representing roughly 24% of global GDP. The U.S.
Dollar Index (DXY) — the most-quoted single proxy for 'the dollar' — has traded in a 70-115 range since the floating-exchange-rate era began in March 1973, with the major peaks (1985 plaza accord top near 165 prior to coordinated intervention; September 2022 cycle peak of 114.78) and troughs (2008 financial crisis low of approximately 71; 1979-1980 Volcker-era pre-disinflation low) reflecting structural macroeconomic regimes.
That is the opening. Finishing a lesson is where it stops being interesting and starts being useful: the full lesson runs to 6 sections and ends with 6 practice questions. A free account is what opens the rest, and the other 255 lessons in the Academy with it. No card.
What this lesson covers
- 1The Dollar Smile — Stephen Jen's framework for when the dollar appreciates versus depreciates
- 2FX market mechanics and the carry-trade math
- 3Major dollar measures and their characteristics
- 4September 2022 — DXY peaks at 114.78 and the dollar smile right side at full force
- 5Where to see this on the platform
- 6Summary