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US/Israel action topples or decapitates the Iranian regime, or a direct US–Iran war.
ProbabilityLoading…
Prior
12%
Analyst estimate
12%est
Probability trend
Trigger conditionsWatch list
US/Israel strikes on Iran
Regime succession vacuum
Opposition mobilization
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Expert consensus
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History says
event playbook
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Sensitivity analysisWhat flips the posterior?
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Outcomes by assetTop 5
Symbol
Reason
Δ
BZ=F
Brent spike on Gulf-war risk
+15%
XOM
Integrated oil supply-shock beneficiary
+10%
LMT
Defense demand on kinetic escalation
+8%
RTX
Missile/air-defense restocking
+7%
DAL
Jet fuel cost pass-through
−4%
Emerging scenarios
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Scenario correlation matrix
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Calibration dashboardEngine accuracy
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Forward-looking projection based on stated assumptions. Actual results will differ — possibly materially — from any figure shown. No outcome is guaranteed. Estimates are not investment advice and should not be the basis for any investment decision.